El Niño may begin thousands of kilometres away from a shrimp pond, but its effects can travel through the aquaculture supply chain and eventually reach the farm.
Changes in ocean temperatures and atmospheric conditions can influence marine fisheries, rainfall and temperatures in different parts of the world. For shrimp farming, this can create pressure at several points — from the availability and price of feed ingredients to changes in pond temperature, dissolved oxygen and salinity.
That does not mean every shrimp farm will experience the same impact. Weather patterns and pond conditions can vary considerably between regions. But the current situation is already showing why El Niño deserves attention from the aquaculture industry.
One of the clearest examples is the pressure on the global fishmeal and fish-oil supply.
El Niño Is Putting Pressure on Fishmeal Supply
Fishmeal is an important marine ingredient used in aquaculture feed, and Peru is one of the world's major producers. IFFO says Peru typically contributes around 20% of global fishmeal production in an average year. (IFFO)
In Peru, the first North-Central anchovy season of 2026 was given a quota of 1.914 million tonnes. However, fishing activity was repeatedly interrupted before being suspended on June 10, with only around 25% of the quota caught. IFFO reported that warm-water conditions and a high presence of juvenile anchovy were among the factors behind the difficult fishing conditions. (IFFO)
The impact has extended beyond Peru's fishing sector.
IFFO's September 14 update showed that cumulative fishmeal production during the first seven months of 2026 was 49% lower than during the same period in 2025. Fish-oil production was also 30% lower, with Peru and Chile accounting for a major part of the shortfall. (IFFO)
For an aquaculture industry that depends on marine ingredients, a reduction of this scale matters.
Could This Increase Shrimp Feed Costs?
When the supply of an important feed ingredient becomes tighter, prices can come under pressure.
FAO reported that global fishmeal and fish-oil markets tightened sharply during the first half of 2026. Peruvian super-prime fishmeal reached around US$2,500 per tonne in May 2026, compared with approximately US$1,400 per tonne a year earlier. FAO also reported lower fishing quotas in Peru and Chile as one of the factors contributing to tighter supply. (FAOHome)
However, this does not mean shrimp feed prices will increase by the same percentage as fishmeal prices. Shrimp feed contains multiple ingredients, and manufacturers can adjust formulations depending on ingredient availability, nutritional requirements and cost.
The important point for farmers is that continued pressure on marine ingredients can add to the overall cost environment for aquafeed.
There may also be some relief later in the year. IFFO expects higher fishing activity during the final quarter from regions including China, India and Oman, which could help offset part of the South American shortfall. (IFFO)
So the direction of feed prices will depend on how global marine-ingredient production develops over the coming months.
What Could Happen Inside the Shrimp Pond?
The second part of the El Niño story is the farm environment itself.
If weather conditions become hotter or rainfall patterns change, pond-water conditions can also change. Temperature is particularly important because it affects shrimp metabolism, feeding activity and oxygen demand.
There is also a direct relationship between temperature and dissolved oxygen. Warmer water holds less dissolved oxygen than cooler water. At the same time, shrimp and other organisms in the pond continue consuming oxygen.
This becomes especially important as shrimp biomass increases.
During the night, photosynthesis stops while respiration continues, which means dissolved oxygen can fall. As a result, early-morning DO deserves particular attention during prolonged hot conditions.
Farmers should therefore look at temperature and DO together rather than treating them as completely separate measurements.
Could Salinity Also Change?
Temperature is only one part of the picture. Rainfall and evaporation can also influence pond salinity.
During prolonged hot and dry conditions, evaporation removes water while leaving most dissolved salts behind. If there is not enough freshwater entering the system, salinity can gradually increase.
Heavy rainfall can create the opposite situation. A large amount of freshwater entering the pond can cause salinity to fall rapidly.
For shrimp, the concern is not simply whether salinity is high or low. Sudden changes in salinity can create osmotic stress, particularly when shrimp have to adapt quickly to changing water conditions.
That is why farmers should monitor salinity alongside temperature, DO and pH, especially when weather conditions change rapidly.
If freshwater availability becomes limited during a dry period, farmers may also depend more heavily on available source-water supplies. Before bringing that water into the pond, its salinity and other important water-quality parameters should be checked.
The question is not only how much water is available, but what is in that water.
What If Hot, Dry Weather Is Followed by Heavy Rain?
A prolonged hot and dry period followed by sudden heavy rainfall can create another challenge.
Pond temperature can change. Salinity can change. pH can move. Other water-quality conditions can also shift as the pond responds to the sudden weather change.
This is why farmers should not focus only on keeping individual parameters within a target range. Avoiding sudden and unnecessary fluctuations is also important.
Regular measurement can help identify these changes earlier instead of relying only on how the pond looks.
Does El Niño Directly Cause Shrimp Disease?
This is where the distinction is important.
El Niño itself should not be described as a direct cause of shrimp disease.
The concern is indirect. If unusual weather contributes to higher temperatures, lower dissolved oxygen, unstable salinity or other water-quality fluctuations, shrimp may experience greater environmental stress. Such stress can make health management more difficult.
Therefore, farmers should focus on the conditions they can actually monitor and manage rather than treating El Niño itself as a disease event.
What Should Shrimp Farmers Do?
The first step is preparation, not panic.
Farmers cannot control El Niño, but they can improve their preparedness.
Monitor water quality more frequently. During prolonged hot or unusual weather, regularly check temperature, DO, pH and salinity. Early-morning DO deserves particular attention.
Match stocking with farm capacity. Higher biomass means greater oxygen demand and more water-quality management pressure. Stocking should be appropriate for the pond, aeration capacity and management ability.
Watch feeding behaviour. Changes in feed consumption can provide an early indication that pond conditions or shrimp behaviour have changed. Feed trays can help farmers observe actual consumption rather than blindly following a fixed schedule.
Keep aeration systems ready. As temperature and biomass increase, oxygen management becomes increasingly important. Aeration equipment should be maintained and ready for use.
Monitor weather and source water. Follow reliable weather updates and check source-water quality before introducing water into the pond, particularly during periods of unusual rainfall or salinity conditions.
Investigate unusual changes early. Changes in feeding, shrimp behaviour, water parameters or mortality should not be ignored. Early investigation and advice from qualified aquaculture professionals can help prevent a manageable issue from becoming more serious.
The Bottom Line
El Niño's potential impact on shrimp farming extends far beyond the pond.
Its effects can move through a chain — marine fisheries to fishmeal, fishmeal to feed, and changing weather conditions to pond temperature, oxygen and salinity.
The current fishmeal market shows why this connection matters. IFFO's latest figures indicate a 49% decline in fishmeal production and 30% decline in fish-oil production during the first seven months of 2026, while FAO data shows that Peruvian fishmeal prices rose sharply during the first half of the year. (IFFO)
For shrimp farmers, the practical response is not to predict exactly what El Niño will do to every farm.
It is to measure water more closely, monitor weather, maintain aeration, watch salinity and pH, manage feeding carefully and respond early when conditions change.
El Niño cannot be controlled at the farm level. But how prepared the farm is for changing conditions can be.
