The global shrimp industry has spent years improving production efficiency. Farming systems have become more intensive, supply chains have expanded, and major producing countries continue to look for ways to increase output.
But higher production does not automatically translate into higher returns.
At the Global Shrimp Forum 2026, held in Utrecht from September 1–3, industry discussions increasingly centred on what happens when supply grows faster than demand. More than 550 delegates from over 40 countries attended the event, with pricing, trade, tariffs, production growth, consumption and El Niño among the major topics.
That makes the current shrimp market particularly interesting. The industry is not dealing with one problem, but with several pressures arriving at the same time.
More Production, More Pressure on Prices
The rapid expansion of Ecuador's shrimp industry has become one of the clearest examples of how production scale can reshape global competition.
Ecuador has built a highly integrated production system combining large-scale farming, strong biological performance, cost competitiveness and increasing integration across feed, farming and processing. Its continued expansion has strengthened its position in international markets and raised the competitive pressure on other producing countries.
But greater supply also creates a challenge when demand does not expand at the same pace.
At the September industry discussions, Ecuadorian representatives raised concerns about what they described as a "race to the bottom" in shrimp pricing. The issue is not simply about producing shrimp more efficiently. If producers increasingly compete by lowering prices, the pressure can spread through farmers, processors and exporters.
This makes demand growth increasingly important.
The industry is looking at ways to increase shrimp consumption, particularly in major markets such as Europe, while also moving beyond a commodity-based approach through brands, product formats and stronger consumer demand. The September programme included dedicated sessions on European shrimp consumption and on building consumer pull for shrimp.
In other words, the industry's challenge is not only to produce more shrimp, but to create enough demand to absorb that additional supply at sustainable prices.
US Trade Policy Is Changing Shrimp Trade Flows
While production growth is affecting competition, trade policy is changing where shrimp is being sold.
The United States remains an important market for major shrimp-producing countries, but tariff measures and continuing trade uncertainty are encouraging exporters to diversify their destinations.
India provides a useful example. S&P Global reported that India's frozen shrimp exports reached a record 719,985 tonnes in 2025, an increase of 8% year on year. However, shipments to the US fell 13%, while exports to China, Vietnam and the European Union increased.
That shift is significant because it shows that trade barriers can change trade routes rather than simply reduce production.
Indian exporters have been looking at alternative markets as conditions in the US become more uncertain. Different destinations also have different preferences for shrimp sizes, formats and processing levels, which means changes in trade flows can affect the wider supply chain.
The pressure has continued into September 2026. On September 7, US Senators Bill Cassidy and Cindy Hyde-Smith renewed their effort to increase duties on Indian shrimp through the India Shrimp Tariff Act. SeafoodSource reported that the legislation had previously been introduced and was being reintroduced as part of an effort to protect US domestic shrimp producers.
Importantly, this is proposed legislation, not a new tariff that automatically came into force on September 7, 2026. The existing bill record shows that the legislation was introduced in the Senate and referred to the Finance Committee.
For Indian exporters, the significance lies in the continued uncertainty around future access to the US market and the need to maintain alternative destinations.
El Niño Is Creating Another Risk Through Feed Ingredients
Trade affects the selling side of the shrimp business. El Niño is creating a different concern — the cost and availability of important feed ingredients.
Peru is particularly important to the global fishmeal market. IFFO estimates that the country typically accounts for around 20% of global fishmeal production in an average year.
Its first North-Central anchovy season of 2026 had a quota of 1,914,049 tonnes, but fishing activity was repeatedly interrupted before being suspended on June 10. Only around 25% of the quota had been caught by that point. IFFO attributed the difficult conditions to factors including warm waters and a high presence of juvenile anchovy.
The effect has now become visible in global marine-ingredient production.
According to IFFO's September 14 update, cumulative fishmeal production during the first seven months of 2026 was 49% below the same period in 2025, while fish-oil production was down 30%. Peru and Chile were the largest contributors to the shortfall, with weaker catches elsewhere adding to the decline.
For shrimp farming, however, this does not mean that El Niño is directly reducing shrimp production everywhere.
The more immediate concern is what tighter marine-ingredient supply could mean for aquafeed availability and costs. Feed remains one of the most important operating expenses in shrimp farming, so changes in feed ingredient markets can have consequences even when farm-level production remains relatively stable.
There is also a possibility of partial supply recovery later in the year. IFFO said production from regions including China, India and Oman, which enter important fishing periods during the final quarter, could help offset some of the shortfall from South America.
Three Developments That Are Now Connected
The pricing, trade and El Niño stories may look separate, but for the shrimp industry they are increasingly connected.
When production expands rapidly, competition can push prices lower. When tariffs or other trade measures affect major destinations, exporters have to redirect volumes to alternative markets. And when fishmeal and fish oil availability falls, farmers can face additional pressure on production costs.
The result is a more complicated margin equation for the entire value chain.
A farmer needs to consider not just production and survival, but also feed costs and the price received at harvest. An exporter has to consider not just how much shrimp is available, but where it can be sold profitably after tariffs, freight and processing costs. And producing countries need to think beyond increasing output to developing stronger domestic and international demand.
This is why the industry's focus is increasingly shifting from volume alone to value, efficiency and market diversification.
What Could Matter Most for Shrimp in the Coming Months?
For exporters, diversification will remain important as trade policies continue to evolve. India's recent export pattern shows that volumes can move towards China, Vietnam and Europe when conditions in the US become more difficult.
For producers, efficiency will remain critical, particularly if shrimp prices remain competitive while feed and other operating costs fluctuate.
For the wider industry, however, demand may be the bigger long-term question.
If global shrimp production continues to increase, the market needs more consumers and more ways to sell shrimp. Value-added products, new formats, stronger retail positioning and greater consumption in underdeveloped markets could help absorb additional supply without relying entirely on lower prices.
At the same time, the industry will have to manage risks that originate far beyond the farm — from international trade policy to fisheries conditions in Peru and Chile.
The Bottom Line
The global shrimp market is not being shaped by one single development. Production growth, price competition, trade policy and climate-related supply risks are increasingly influencing each other.
Ecuador's expansion is raising the level of competition. India's changing export destinations show how trade flows can adjust to tariff pressure. And the sharp decline in fishmeal and fish-oil production during the first seven months of 2026 shows how conditions in major fisheries can eventually become relevant to aquaculture economics.
The next phase of shrimp growth, therefore, may depend on more than producing additional tonnes.
The bigger challenge will be producing efficiently, reaching diverse markets, controlling costs and creating enough consumer demand to support the industry's growing supply.
